Weather Impacts on Walking and Cycling

If you want to get the most out of your network, understanding weather impacts is a huge asset.

Active mobility is heavily influenced by the weather, and citizens will make different transportation choices in different climates. With climate change causing more extreme variations in temperature and weather, this is especially true today. Weather data can help you understand variations in transportation trends and figure out which weather factors are the most influencial.

Most people have an idea of how weather might increase or decrease pedestrians and cyclists on a road - but data often reveals higher levels of winter cycling and walking in the rain than expected.

What impact does the weather really have on cycling and walking?

Rain, wind or cold are often perceived as major obstacles to cycling and walking.

Even if these modes are more sensitive to weather conditions than motorists, the impact is usually less or different than expected.

For example, in a study we conducted with People for Bikes, we saw that winter cycling rates increased steadily over the last five years in the United States. One explanation could be that climate change is creating warmer winters, prompting many people to use active transportation in less than ideal weather. This data demonstrates the importance of collecting usage data in various weather conditions to properly maintain winter facilities and reduce risks to pedestrians and cyclists.

A simple indicator to extract from count data is the winter retention rate. It is calculated by dividing the average number of visitors in winter months by the average number of visitors in summer months.

Depending on weather conditions and climate, winter retention can vary enormously. Calculating it, and then monitoring it on a regular basis, provides key trend information, especially for cities that have drastically changing seasons.

In Montreal, a study showed that the winter retention rate rose from 8% in 2016 to 14% in 2020, emphasizing the city's need to continue clearing snow from bikes lanes in the winter for these winter cyclists.

Once you've identified that weather impacts pedestrian and cyclist traffic, how do you take this into account when developing active transportation?

One way is to group weather conditions and compare how count volumes differ. A feature in our Eco-Visio analysis software lets you calculate the average number of pedestrian and cyclist counts from one year to the next on days with comparable weather conditions (for example, days without rain, days above a certain temperature, etc.).

From there, you can see the traffic difference in favorable vs. unfavorable weather and make decisions or predictions based on these concrete factors.

When it comes to pedestrians, cyclists, and other active modes, which weather condition affects them the most? Is it the amount of rain? Snow? Average temperature? Winds speed?

It all depends on the people who live in your city or community. In San Diego County, for example, a study we conducted for the San Diego Association of Governments (SANDAG) found that temperature was a major factor in cycling, with ridership dipping significantly if it was under 66 °F (19 °C). In Montreal however, temperature had much less impact on cycling. Instead, amount of rainfall was a much greater indicator.

Other common factors for low counts include absence of sunshine, total duration of rain, and wind speeds. Knowing what affects your citizens most gives you the insights on how best to keep them comfortable and safe.

Case study: Houston, Texas

Houston, Texas experiences extreme heat in the summer, accompanied by heavy rain.

The biggest challenge facing cyclists in Houston is the high daytime temperatures during the summer months; cycling in these conditions, without shade, can be unpleasant and even dangerous.

A study carried out by the Houston-Galveston Area Council on a trail leading into downtown Houston found that citizens were using the trail for leisure rather than utility. This was evident as weekends and holidays recorded the highest volumes of cycling.

An analysis of ridership and weather data supported this idea. They saw that most cyclists used the trail when temperatures were lower and shade was more prevalent (i.e. at sunrise and sunset).